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U.S. Army Lt. Adam Wilson from Ontario, California, shakes hands with Sheik Mahmood Al-Ghizzi, possibly for the last time, on December 5, in Nasiriyah, Iraq. The two men met for a final lunch as the U.S. military prepares to leave Iraq after a nearly nine-year presence.
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U.S. Army Lt. Adam Wilson from Ontario, California, shakes hands with Sheik Mahmood Al-Ghizzi, possibly for the last time, on December 5, in Nasiriyah, Iraq. The two men met for a final lunch as the U.S. military prepares to leave Iraq after a nearly nine-year presence.
As the last U.S. troops prepare to leave Iraq this month, what kind of country are they leaving behind?
Iraq's economy, the security system and the political structure are all functioning to varying degrees, yet all appear fragile.
No one expects Iraq to serve as a beacon of Jeffersonian democracy to the region or the world. The more relevant question at this point is how well it will function as a democracy, period.
"Iraqis themselves are uneasy about what the future holds," says Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst. "Iraq can't control its borders, it's got a weak military and a weak government and the economy is weak."
Violence has fallen since the country's most difficult period five years ago, but remains a persistent problem.
Timeline: The U.S. And The War In Iraq
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq at the end of 2011 marks the end of a nine-year conflict.
"Iraq is a country that's going to be characterized by violence for a long time to come," says Michael Eisenstadt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The main thing is that the violence not get out of hand."
Iraqis have mostly been able to "muddle along" in recent years, says Celeste Ward Gventer, a former Department of Defense official who served as a political-military adviser in Iraq. They have avoided the "nightmare scenario" of descent back into chaos and rampant sectarian violence.
Still, she says, the country has "fallen far short of initial ambitions, and even the tempered ambitions that followed."
Conflicting Forces
Iraq's center of political gravity is being pulled in conflicting directions. The dominant theme recently has been the extent to which Prime Minister Nouriel al-Maliki has been able to consolidate power around himself.
His office dominates the legislature and is far more powerful than that of the president. Maliki has challenged the independence of other institutions as well, including the central bank, the election commission and the judiciary, according to analysts.
"Their version of the Supreme Court has almost become a tool in Maliki's hand," says Adeed Dawisha, a political scientist at Miami University of Ohio.
Such aggrandizement of personal political power, not limited to Maliki, is putting national reconciliation at risk, says Eric Davis, a political scientist at Rutgers University. At the same time, he says, competition among parliamentary factions is preventing various cabinet ministries from performing adequately.
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U.S. President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (second from left) participate in a wreath laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery on Monday. Maliki was in Washington for talks ahead of the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq this month.
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U.S. President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (second from left) participate in a wreath laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery on Monday. Maliki was in Washington for talks ahead of the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq this month.
"They have all the trappings of democracy in place," Dawisha says. "You want to see if they improve their functionality in terms of democracy in the future. At the moment, as of today, they're not functioning very well."
Out In The Provinces
Iraqis understand political tradeoffs and coalition-building better than many in the U.S. think, says Yaphe, the former CIA analyst, who is now a fellow at the National Defense University.
They pull back and negotiate, preferring
